Welcome to the Global Energy 2050 Project

The Global Energy 2050 Project examines the impact of potential future energy mix scenarios on geopolitics, energy markets, and geo-economics. Through a process of modeling the interactions of key drivers and energy consumption phenomena and production at country, regional, and global levels, the project builds scenarios to investigate broad geopolitical and market impacts across different timescales and test policy options which seize opportunities and minimize risk.

This website, Global Energy 2050: Projections Under Deep Uncertainty, is a scenario-visualization platform designed to allow users to explore the Global Energy 2050 model and several initial scenarios developed during the first-run of the Global Energy 2050 Project in 2018 (Version 1.1).
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Below, you will find the visualization for Energy 2050’s Base Case Scenario. To view one of our three scenarios or historical data back to 1970, click on any of the links below and select a country to begin exploring!

Base Case: The Energy System in 2050
TIPS
1.    Select a country on the map to display a series of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in the right panel.
  • Dotted lines represent upper and lower boundaries.
  • Solid lines represent the most commonly occurring result.
  • A fourth line compares the scenario’s results to the GE 2060 Base Case Scenario.  
2.    Hover over a given year to reveal the datapoints for each line, including the base case.
3.    Scroll down to see up to 6 KPIs. ​

More About the Base Case

This scenario assumes a continuation of moderate economic growth: things remain broadly in line with recent trends politically and economically, with no major disruptive changes in the political or technological and no radical departures in terms of sustainable development and climate related policies. This is the scenario from which all the others depart in one way or another.
 
In this scenario, policies remain the same as they were in the recent past– there is continuity of assumptions and practice. There is a continued advancement of renewables but no real effort to make a decisive shift. Consumption of oil, gas and coal continues to grow in absolute terms, while declining relative to the total. There are additional efficiency gains in all areas of energy demand, roughly corresponding to those the world has seen recently or which can be assumed as part of normal product development. (It’s arguable that the EU and China have already moved away from this, towards more of a “Going Green” scenario).

Modeling Under Deep Uncertainty
The Global Energy 2050 Project relies on a ‘model of models’ interacting in an environment of ‘Deep Uncertainty’, which accounts for the wide variety of futures, variables, and scenarios which might shape the energy system in the coming years without skewing output through predetermined assumptions, interactions, or outputs. 

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